Commodity Outlook

Gold Market (Updated January 2026)

Gold entered 2026 at historically elevated levels following an exceptionally strong 2025 performance. Key supports remain central bank purchases, geopolitical and macro uncertainty, and expectations that interest rates may trend lower, which tends to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. (World Gold Council)

Recent major-bank outlooks highlight continued strength but also elevated volatility. HSBC stated in early January 2026 that gold could reach US$5,000/oz in the first half of 2026, while also projecting a wide trading range in 2026 and warning that a correction is possible if geopolitical risks ease or if rate-cut expectations change. Morgan Stanley separately forecast gold reaching US$4,800/oz by Q4 2026, citing drivers including interest-rate dynamics and continued official-sector/investor demand. (Reuters)

Demand remains supported by gold’s role as a portfolio hedge during periods of uncertainty. The World Gold Council continues to describe central banks as a key pillar of demand, noting official sector buying and highlighting the role of risk/uncertainty and opportunity cost in driving gold returns. (World Gold Council)

On the supply side, mine supply growth remains structurally constrained by rising costs, permitting timelines and limited new discoveries; recycling provides an important but generally secondary supply source.

Outlook: Consensus views for 2026 remain constructive but volatile, with price outcomes highly sensitive to geopolitics, monetary policy expectations, and investor positioning. (Reuters)

Copper Supply and Demand (Updated January 2026)

Copper market fundamentals entering 2026 continue to reflect structural demand tailwinds and persistent supply constraints. Demand growth is supported by electrification, grid expansion, renewable energy build-out and the increasing copper intensity of digital infrastructure, including data centres. (CME Group)

Supply remains challenged by long mine development lead times, declining grades and permitting complexity. UNCTAD notes that mine development timelines can extend to decades and that the supply outlook is complicated by declining ore grades and geopolitical risks, reinforcing the difficulty of closing future supply gaps quickly. (UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Pricing and flows have also been affected by policy uncertainty. Reuters reported in early January 2026 that tariff expectations and the premium in U.S. futures versus global benchmarks distorted trade flows and inventory signals, contributing to tighter conditions and volatility. (Reuters)

From a forward-looking perspective, J.P. Morgan Global Research has highlighted expectations for a refined market deficit in 2026 and has published price projections reflecting a tightening market. JPMorgan Global Research has separately highlighted expectations for a refined market deficit in 2026. S&P Global analysis reported by the Financial Times has warned of a material longer-term copper shortfall risk tied to the energy transition and rising demand, underscoring the strategic importance of new supply and exploration. (Financial Times)

Outlook: While copper is likely to remain volatile in the near term due to macro conditions, policy uncertainty and potential supply disruptions, the medium- to long-term fundamentals remain supported by electrification demand and constrained supply growth. (CME Group, JPMorgan Chase)

Molybdenum Market (Updated January 2026)

Molybdenum fundamentals entering 2026 remain closely tied to copper mining because a substantial portion of global molybdenum supply is produced as a by-product of copper operations. This linkage can constrain responsiveness of supply to molybdenum-specific demand changes and can contribute to tighter market conditions when copper operations face disruptions or limitations.

Price indicators in early January 2026 continued to show firm conditions. Trading Economics reported benchmark molybdenum pricing rising in early January 2026 and remaining elevated versus recent history, reflecting ongoing tightness and sensitivity to supply/demand shifts. (Trading Economics)

Demand drivers remain anchored in stainless and specialty steels and high-performance alloys, with additional thematic support from energy and infrastructure applications. Market commentary also continues to emphasize 2025 volatility and changing supply/demand dynamics heading into 2026 (noting price swings rather than a single linear trend). (news.metal.com)

Outlook: Most market discussions frame molybdenum as remaining relatively firm into 2026, although future prices remain subject to volatility and market risk.(Trading Economics)